Last Sunday's win was a big one. We saved the season. Now, at 2-3 in games played (with a 3-3 overall record), we're right in the playoff hunt.
The message is simple: win and we're in. Lose, and we'll be potentially fighting to stay in Second Division in the last week. We don't want to be there. So keep the pedal to the metal.
Check out the standings going into our last two games:
I had a little chat with the "Numbers Guys" about the standings. I am declassifying the conversation. Don't put any stock in talk of top and bottom teams though. It's just a characterization of the current standings in the table. Any team in the division is capable of beating another. Each game, as we know, must be played hard. Read and enjoy!
| Goleros Soccer Club | Mon, May 17, 2010 at 9:49 AM |
To: Nathan, George Cc: Allison |
Nate/ George, Good and fun game yesterday. You're my numbers guys. Take a look at the standings and remaining schedule. I was hoping to handicap our playoff chances in a post later today or tomorrow. I also planned to announce that we were clear of relegation, with 9 points. But looking over the schedule, all the top teams appear to be playing all the bottom teams. So there isn't much opportunity for the bottom teams to take each other out. It appears then that we are not actually safe. If the bottom teams win out, could we be left at the bottom of the table in the relegation zone? PI
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| George | Mon, May 17, 2010 at 10:12 AM |
To: Goleros Soccer Club Cc: Nathan, Allison |
Good thing is that we have DC Divided and DC Thunder below us and we need to play both of them.... We can max out at at 15 points, logically we could drop to relegation if we lose both games and the bottom teams win both games. One more win and we are SAFE from relegation.... or two ties - Magic Number is 11 points to guarentee a spot above the relegation zone (That is assuming the bottom two win out) Playoffs - One win puts us at 12 points, the teams in 6th (two of them, if they win their last two games gets to the 12 points), so it will come down to goal differential A win and a tie we are locked into a playoff spot, a win and we SHOULD be in based on GD, right now we are up by 7 goals... If you want to even talk crazier we could logically leag frog two second WITH A LOT OF HELP....
[Quoted text hidden] |
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| George | Mon, May 17, 2010 at 10:14 AM |
To: Goleros Soccer Club Cc: Nathan, Allison |
DC Thunder and DC Divided each play US and the Diplomats (team we played yesterday) to finish the season....... [Quoted text hidden] |
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| Nathan | Mon, May 17, 2010 at 11:24 AM |
To: George Cc: Goleros Soccer Club, Allison |
[Remember head-to-head is the first tie breaker then goal differential is the second tie breaker]
Worst Case:
Theoretically we could still place last:
Celtic beats LUA and Taz
Lost beats Tsunami and Itchy
Dips beat Thunder and Divided
And the last nail in the coffin would be Goleros loose to Thunder and Divided (giving Goleros, Thunder, and Divided 9 points and Goleros loosing out on head-to-head tie breaker].
This is highly unlikely since it relies on the two last place teams beating the top four teams.
Best Case:
Like Pete said, we could end up in 2nd place:
Goleros wins both games
LUA looses both or ties both remaining games (Celtic, and Tsunami)
(If LUA ties both remaining, we would only take second place if we win both and if our goal diff is higher since we do not have a head-to-head with LUA).
Taz's highest point total can only be 14 (their last game is vs. Celtic)
Finally, for Goleros to take second we have to root for Tsunami to win or tie vs. LUA and loose or tie vs. Lost Tourists.
This is actually a slight bit more likely than us ending in last place.
The most likely scenario is that the bottom teams will stay bottom.
The fight for our playoff spot in fifth or sixth place is going to be intense since we all play each other. We play Thunder and Divided and Dips play Thunder and Divided.
So, correct me if I'm wrong, but because head-to-head is the first tie breaker - one win guarantees us a playoff spot in 6th place.
Nathan
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| George | Mon, May 17, 2010 at 11:28 AM |
To: Nathan Cc: Goleros Soccer Club , Allison |
| That would be correct.... A win and we are in (or at least it appears that way) [Quoted text hidden] |
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| George | Mon, May 17, 2010 at 4:52 PM |
To: Nathan Cc: Goleros Soccer Club , Allison |
Even a TIE will essentially give us the 6th spot because whoever we tie could only max out at 10 points, so if we tie and lose we are at 10 and would get them at GD, unless they win and overcome the 7 GD... Just a thought
[Quoted text hidden] |
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| Nathan | Mon, May 17, 2010 at 5:49 PM |
To: George Cc: Goleros Soccer Club , Allison |
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